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Water AetherwingTier 1

at Yolo Tcg Park Malaysia Grand Archive RDO Regional

decks
10 (18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47 29-12-6
overall winrate
68.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.1% avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
57.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1220 · median 1219 · range 1046–1372 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029 Q1 1122 Q3 1273 1532
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 9.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.7% +3.5
Fire Crux Mage 7.3% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.4
Water Fractal 7.3% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 59.9% +5.7
Fire Oblation 5.5% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 62.3% +7.9
Wind Slimes 5.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.1
Fire Suited 3.6% 0
Water Exia 3.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.2% +15.6
Water Neos 3.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 62.4% +9.3
Water Whirlpool Mill 3.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.2% +15.6
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 69.1% +18.4
Wind Razorgale 3.6% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 3.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.1
Fire Aetherwing 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% -4.9
Fire Arcane 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 41.2% -14.1
Fire Exia 1.8% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 43.7% -6.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.7% -1.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.9% +20.7
Fire Slimes 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% -16.0
Fire Suzaku 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Fire Umbra Alice 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Slimes 1.8% 0
Water Astra Diana 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 40.2% -15.6
Water Tera Kongming 1.8% 0
Wind Allies 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.6% -4.2
Wind Arcane 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.0% -2.9
Wind Seiryuu 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.8% -10.0
Wind Silvie 1.8% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.8% +18.9
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cerulean Decree -1.00 0 2 0
Diana, Haunt Reminiscence +1.00 2 0 0
Reposition +1.00 2 0 0
Frostbind +0.50 1 0 1
Refreshing Charge +0.50 1 0 1
Evasive Maneuvers -0.50 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +0.50 1 0 1
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 0
Palvor Sword +0.50 1 0 1
Aetheric Calibration +0.50 1 0 1
Snow White, Weiss Queen +0.50 1 0 1
Ranger Strides +0.50 1 0 1
Topsy Decree -0.50 0 1 0
Overlapping Visages +0.50 1 0 1
Backup Charger -0.50 0 1 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 0
Inert Sword +0.50 1 0 1
The Looking Glass +0.50 1 0 1
Seeker's Aetherwing -0.50 0 1 1
Song of Frost +0.50 1 0 0
Fortifying Manashot -0.50 0 1 0
Fractal of Rain -0.50 0 1 0
Snow Fairy +0.50 1 0 0
Diana, Judgment's Arrow -0.50 0 1 0
Enfeebling Orb +0.50 1 0 0
Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer -0.50 0 1 0
Liquidation -0.50 0 1 0
Shademist Priestess -0.50 0 1 0
Mana's Cascade -0.50 0 1 0
Vantage Point +0.50 1 0 0
Diamond Ribbon -0.50 0 1 0
Mystic Purifier -0.50 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.50 0 1 0
Tidal Lock -0.50 0 1 0
Dissuading Aether +0.00 1 1 0
Undercurrent Vantage +0.00 1 1 0
Expel the Departed +0.00 1 1 0
Reveal the Hidden +0.00 1 1 0
Drown in Aether +0.00 1 1 0
Take Aim +0.00 1 1 0
Disenchant +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/50904/archetypes/Water Aetherwing